Better secure than sorry? Assessing the quantum cybersecurity 'risk'
Eline De Jong

Abstract:
In today's digitalised society, encryption plays a crucial role in securing sensitive data. However, the looming threat of quantum computers capable of breaking current encryption methods poses a significant cybersecurity risk, known as the "cryptopocalypse" or Q-Day. This paper examines the ethical justifiability of transitioning to quantum-safe cryptography (QSC) as a preemptive measure against this threat.

First, the distinction between risk and uncertainty is established, highlighting the decision to treat the quantum cybersecurity threat as a risk as value-laden. Applying Gardiner's Rawlsian Core Precautionary Principle, the paper argues that a precautionary response to the potential harm posed by cryptographically relevant quantum computers is ethically defensible, particularly given the potentially catastrophic consequences of a large-scale cybersecurity breach.

However, several ethical issues arise in the application of this principle in this particular case. These include a lack of awareness about the potential harm among stakeholders, uncertainty about responsibilities for addressing the threat, and concerns regarding the fair distribution of risks and benefits associated with a transition to QSC.
Further research is needed to explore these ethical issues in depth and promote an ethical application of QSC transition measures. Additionally, the paper suggests parallels between applying the precautionary principle in the context of emerging technologies like quantum computing and other domains, such as natural or ecological disasters, which share similar uncertainties and ethical considerations.